Casualty Reduction Targets: Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2020

Casualty Reduction Targets: Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2020

Introduction

The Scottish Government recently published a new Road Safety Framework to 2030.

The previous road safety framework was launched in June 2009 and included Scotland-specific targets due for delivery in 2020. These targets and milestones are included. Each reduction target is assessed against the 2004/08 average.

In addition to the above four targets a pre-existing target (a ten Percent reduction in the slight casualty rate) continued to be adopted. Progress is assessed towards a milestone in 2015 and the final target by means of an indicative trend based on a constant annual percentage reduction.

As outlined above, the number of serious and slight casualties cannot be directly compared to previously recorded figures due to changes in severity reporting.

Progress against the serious casualty reduction targets are therefore based on adjusted figures, produced by the Department for Transport. The adjusted figures show how many slight and serious casualties there would have been in previous years if they had been recorded using the same sort of reporting system that Police Scotland use currently.

To illustrate the reductions necessary the following table shows the adjusted 2004 to 2008 baseline, the latest position as well as the level of casualties inferred by the 2015 milestones and 2020 targets. The 2004-2008 baseline and the 2015 milestone have been calculated on the basis of the adjusted figures produced by the Department for Transport.

Charts showing performance are presented in figure 8. More detail about the calculation of these indicative lines is included in the methodology of assessment section.

Summary of Progress

Due to changes in severity reporting, progress against this target for serious and slight casualties is measured on the basis of adjusted figures provided by the Department for Transport. These figures illustrate how many casualties there would have been in previous years if they had been recorded using an injury-based recording system.

The 2020 figures show:

• 141 people were reported as killed in 2020, 52 Percent (151) below the 2004-2008 average of 292.
• 1,547 people were reported as seriously injured in 2020, 68 Percent (3,318) below the 2004-2008 average of 4,865.
• 6 children were reported as killed in 2020, meaning the average for the 2018-2020 period was 4 a year, this is 76 Percent (11) below the 2004-2008 average of 15.
• 144 children were reported as seriously injured in 2020, 77 Percent (482) below the 2004-2008 average of 626.
• The slight casualty rate of 8.85 casualties per 100 million vehicle kilometres in 2020 was 67 Percent below the 2004-2008 baseline average of 27.01.

This means that all 5 targets have been met.

Figure 8 shows progress towards the casualty reduction targets for 2020.

Note for figure 8(B): Due to the changes in the recording of casualty severities, progress against this target is measured on the basis of adjusted figures.

Note for figure 8(D): Due to the changes in the recording of casualty severities, progress against this target is measured on the basis of adjusted figures.

Commentary

Numbers killed

As shown in Table Ia a reduction of 14.2 Percent compared to the 2015 milestone of 204 was required in 2020 to reach the target. The 2020 figure of 141 is 31% below the 2015 milestone figure and therefore exceeded the target.

Numbers Seriously Injured (adjusted)

As shown in Table Ia, a reduction of 21 Percent compared to the 2015 milestone of 2,773 was required in 2020 to reach this target. The 2020 figure of 1,547 is 44 Percent less than this and therefore exceeded the target.

Children killed

The number of child fatalities is relatively small and the average of 4 over the last three years exceeds the 50 Percent reduction target set for 2020. Table Ib shows the average number of child fatalities for 2018-2020 for each mode (apart from ‘other’) is below the 2004-2008 baseline.

Child pedestrian fatalities have fallen from an average of 6 per year in 2004-2008 to an average of 2 per year in 2018-2020.

Child pedal cycle fatalities have fallen from an average of 2 per year in the baseline period to an average of zero in the last three years. The number of child fatalities as passengers in cars has fallen as well from an average of 6 per year in the baseline period to one per year in the 2018-2020 period,.

Children seriously injured (adjusted)

As shown in Table Ia, a reduction of 24.9 Percent compared to the 2015 milestone of 313 was required in 2020 to remain on the trajectory for this target. The 2020 figure of 144 is 54 Percent below the trajectory and therefore exceeded the target.

Slightly injured casualties (adjusted)

Because of the limited availability of detailed reliable road traffic estimates for Scotland, Table Ib shows the numbers of slight casualties (rather than slight casualty rates) for categories of road user. The table also shows the overall total volume of traffic and the overall adjusted slight casualty rate.

Table Ib shows that adjusted slight injuries per million vehicle kilometres are 63 Percent below the 2004-2008 average.

The number of slight casualties has fallen compared to the baseline for all modes of transport. The largest reduction was for bus / coach (90%). Car users make up around two-thirds of slight casualties and there has been a reduction of 74% compared to the baseline period. Pedal cycles on the other hand have shown a 27% decrease on the 2004-2008 average.

Other statistics for monitoring progress

Table 40 in the main section of this publication shows the baseline figures for each local authority area relating to the targets for the numbers killed (separately for trunk roads, local authority roads and all roads), along with the corresponding figures for each of the past ten years and the latest five years’ averages. Table 42 shows figures for each Police Force division related to all killed and children killed.

Method for assessing progress towards the casualty reduction targets

One way of assessing progress towards the targets is to compare actual casualty numbers in each year with an indicative line that starts at the baseline figure in 2006 (mid-point of the 2004 to 2008 average) and falls, by a constant percentage reduction in each subsequent year, to the milestone for 2015 and from there to the target for 2020. This is the approach adopted by the GB Road Safety Advisory Panel. Other approaches could have been used: there are many ways of producing lines that indicate how casualty numbers might fall fairly steadily to the targets for 2020.

The method adopted to produce the indicative target lines shown in Figure 8 involves a constant percentage reduction in each year after 2006 to the 2015 milestone, then a constant percentage reduction between 2015 and 2020. The resulting indicative target lines represent the percentages of the baseline averages which are shown in the table below. They are not straight lines, because of the compounding over the years effect of constant annual percentage reductions (to two decimal places, the falls are: 3.89% per annum for killed to meet the 2015 milestone and 3.02% between 2015 and 2020). For seriously injured casualties the falls are 6.06% and 4.61%. For child killed 4.67% and 4.37% or children seriously injured 7.41% and 6.90%.

Previous targets

In 1987 the UK Government adopted a target to reduce road casualties by one third from the 1981-85 annual average by the year 2000. The number of people killed on the roads in Scotland in 2000 was 49% below the 1981-85 average number of fatalities per year, and therefore the target of a one-third reduction by the year 2000 was exceeded for fatalities. For seriously injured casualties, the 2000 figure was 57% below the 1981-85 average, so the target was bettered for seriously injured casualties. However, the figure of 16,618 slight casualties in 2000 was only 9% below the 1981-85 average and so the target of a one-third reduction was not achieved for slight casualties. And, the total number of casualties in 2000 was 24% below the 1981-85 average, and therefore the target of a one-third reduction in the total number of casualties was not met.

In March 2000, the UK Government, the then Scottish Executive and the National Assembly for Wales announced a new national road safety strategy and casualty reduction targets for 2010. The number of people killed or seriously injured on the roads in Scotland in 2010 was 55% below the 1994-98 average, and therefore the target of a 40% reduction by the year 2010 was exceeded for fatalities. For children killed or seriously injured, the 2010 figure was 73% below the 1994-98 average, a greater reduction than the 2010 target of a 50% fall. The slight casualty rate of 25.67 casualties per 100 million vehicle kilometres in 2010 was 45% below the 1994-98 baseline average of 46.42 – a greater reduction than the 2010 target of a 10% fall.

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