Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on reported road casualties

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on reported road casualties

Due to the impact of COVID-19 and the associated restrictions on daily activity, there have been changes in people’s travel behaviour over the course of 2020. The significant drop in casualty numbers in 2020 will have been significantly affected by these changes in travel.

Motor traffic reductions

In 2020 there was a significant drop in the volume of motor traffic in Scotland. The UK government’s Department for Transport (DfT) estimates that motor traffic volume dropped by 23% in Scotland in 2020 compared with the previous year (Road traffic estimates in Great Britain 2020: Table TRA0103).

In general terms, reductions in traffic should lead to smaller numbers of interactions between road users. Therefore, all else being equal, we would expect to see a decrease in the number of accidents as a result.

From relatively early in the pandemic Transport Scotland published a measure of traffic volume on the trunk road network, which accounts for around 40% of traffic volume in Scotland (Covid-19 National Transport Trend Data). The trend in casualties throughout the year broadly mirrors the changing levels of estimated car traffic.

Comparisons with other countries

Due to consistent recording practices, fatalities are the most readily comparable class of casualty with other countries. The 15% drop in fatalities in Scotland in 2020 is broadly in line with reductions seen internationally. Road deaths in Great Britain as a whole (GB) saw a 17% decrease in 2020 as did road fatalities in the European Union (EU).

Trends for fatalities in the EU and GB followed a similar trend to casualties in Scotland, with the largest percentage drop occurring in April, as travel restrictions were introduced in many countries.

Over the course of the year there was a smaller reduction in fatalities (15%) than injured casualties (34%). It may be that during lockdown less serious accidents were not reported to the police to the same degree as in previous years. This pattern was seen across GB as a whole.

Please see the road casualty reports covering GB and the EU for further information.

Increased cycling

The only transport mode that did not see a reduction in casualties in 2020 was pedal cycle, with total pedal cycle casualties rising by 2%.

DfT produce estimates of cycling on the road network, which suggests that cycling on the road network increased by 61% in Scotland in 2020 (Road traffic estimates in Great Britain 2020: Table TRA0403).

A similar pattern was seen for GB as a whole, insofar as cycle fatalities increased in GB in 2020 amidst a 46% increase in road cycling.

Reduced bus use

Casualties amongst bus users saw a particularly notable drop of 58% in 2020. This may be partly explained by the significant drop in bus use during the pandemic. Total passenger numbers on local bus services in Scotland were down 53% in 2020 compared with 2019 (Quarterly bus statistics: Table BUS0106).

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