Scotland Planning Assessment Part 1 Report Volume 1

3.3 Baseline Rail Passenger Travel Patterns

3.3.1 Changes in Rail Passenger Demand

As explained in Chapter 1, our baseline rail data was from LENNON. At the time our study began, this data was only available for 2003/04.

Recent patronage figures demonstrate growth had been relatively modest up to this point. Passenger numbers increased by just 14% between 1997 and 2003¹⁷. As a comparison, only Arriva Trains Merseyside and Arriva Trains Northern achieved a lower growth rate over the same period. We have reviewed the historic patronage trends by ticket type between 1992/93 and 2002/03 illustrated in Figure 3.12. The principal trends include:

• fluctuating total patronage from 53.2 million journeys in 1994/95 to 65.2m in 2000/01;
• increasing use of reduced tickets from 13.1m to 16.4m;
• season tickets journeys increasing from 15.9m to 21.9m journeys in 2000/01 before declining to 18.8m in 2002/03;
• a significant reduction in other non-season tickets from 14.8m to 7.6m; and
• full tickets journeys increasing from 14.1m to 17.1m, although this represents a decline from a peak of 18.2m journeys in 2000/01.

Figure 3.12: Patronage Trends by Ticket Type 1992/93 -2002/03

Source: Rail Industry Monitor, 2004

The modest overall growth rates camouflage two important trends:

• Between 1997 and 2000, passenger growth on the Scottish rail network was relatively buoyant, with passenger numbers increasing to 65.2m in 2000/01. This was due to several important service enhancements, including doubling service frequencies between Edinburgh and Glasgow.
• Passenger numbers declined to 62.2m trips by 2002/03 due to:
  • poor train reliability — performance of the Class 334 and 170 units was initially very poor;
  • problems arising following Hatfield — temporary speed limits were imposed; and
  • industrial relations problems — a shortage of drivers following a pay dispute meant only 70% of trains could operate between January and May 2002

3.3.2 Updating 2003/04 LENNON Data to Current Year

Since we prepared our Baseline, LENNON data for 2004/05 has become available. Discussions with the rail industry suggested that demand had recovered.

We have compared the peak patronage trends by ticket type, and identified the combined total for season/non-season tickets declined by 14% between 2000/01 and 2002/03. It is this figure’s recovery that is most critical to our later load factor analysis. We have not included this adjustment in the Baseline load factor calculations. We have included this adjustment for the forecast years to represent the recovery in demand. Even 2003/04 data showed initial indications that rail patronage was recovering, with an 8.5% increase in passenger numbers.

This adjustment is further justified as the relatively modest growth noted between 1997 and 2003 camouflages strong growth on some routes. For example, passenger numbers increased by 71% between Edinburgh and Bathgate from 1996 to 2003¹⁸. The buoyant Edinburgh economy and housing growth were the main contributory factors to this trend.

Ticketless travel appears to have been an issue, since the total number of journeys in the LENNON dataset (56m) is less than the Scottish Executive estimate for 2002/03 of 62m journeys. The introduction of ticket barriers at Glasgow Queen Street, Haymarket and Edinburgh Waverley in 2004, together with additional revenue protection staff provided by FSR will have significantly reduced levels of ticketless travel from the levels recorded in 2003/04, so boosting revenue and demand in LENNON.

3.3.3 Strategic Rail Passenger Travel Patterns

Table 3.5 illustrates the strategic rail travel patterns in Scotland presented using the same geographical aggregations shown earlier. The principal trends are listed here.

• The two principal flows into Central Edinburgh are the 11,400 trips per day in each direction from the Edinburgh Commuter Sector, plus 3,500 longer distance journeys from Central Glasgow. There are also important flows to/from external zones (about 3,900 trips per day) and from the Aberdeen and Inverness lines into Edinburgh (1,250 trips per day). There are over 22,500 single trips per day to Central Edinburgh.
• Almost 65% of the 17,600 single daily trips from the Edinburgh Commuter Sector are made to Central Edinburgh. There are 2,500 trips made within the Edinburgh Commuter Sector. 2,000 trips are made to central Glasgow, principally from Polmont, Linlithgow, Stirling and Dunblane.
• There are almost 5,800 trips per day within the Tayside, Inverness and Aberdeen sector, for example, trips from Aberdeen to Dundee or Inverness. 1,200 trips are made from this sector to both Central Edinburgh and Glasgow. A further 1,200 trips per day are made to external zones. 10,350 single daily trips originate from this sector.
• The ‘Far North’ sector generates the smallest number of trips per day. There are less than 300 trips per day from these stations, and the majority of these journeys are made to Inverness or other stations on the Kyle or Wick lines. There are less than 20 trips per day to Central Glasgow or Edinburgh.
• The number of trips from the West Highland Line is also relatively low (630 trips per day). Over 50% of trips are local journeys, with a further quarter of trips to Central Glasgow. There are 50 trips to external zones, some possibly using the sleeper service to Fort William.
• There are 17,000 trips per day originating from stations in South West Scotland. About 40% of trips are local journeys between stations within this sector (for example, Ayr to Paisley, or Largs to Johnston) with a further 50% of trips to Central Glasgow.
• North West Strathclyde generates about 14,000 trips per day, with about 5,500 trips within this sector, and almost 6,500 journeys to Central Glasgow. With the exception of trips to South Glasgow (1,100 trips per day) using the cross-city services, the number of journeys to other destinations is very small.

Table 3.5: Strategic Daily Passenger Rail Travel Patterns in Scotland

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	Total
1	128	11,434	1,251	15	26	1,383	281	173	89	112	238	3,543	3,924	22,597
2	11,434	2,472	680	4	4	272	71	51	72	31	20	2,070	505	17,686
3	1,251	680	5,797	149	3	19	65	16	9	11	13	1,174	1,162	10,348
4	15	4	149	89	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12	16	287
5	26	4	3	0	337	1	5	22	1	1	2	172	55	629
6	1,383	272	19	0	1	88	34	30	39	16	49	1,474	63	3,467
7	281	71	65	1	5	34	6,531	290	50	462	273	8,448	661	17,171
8	173	72	16	0	22	30	290	554	218	211	1,108	6,435	52	14,152
9	89	72	9	0	1	39	50	218	184	37	172	2,418	7	3,295
10	112	31	11	0	1	16	462	211	37	2,402	221	8,514	53	12,071
11	238	20	13	0	2	49	273	1,108	172	221	1,697	8,159	201	12,154
12	3,543	2,070	1,174	12	172	1,474	7,873	6,001	2,241	7,896	7,508	208	2,427	42,597
13	3,924	505	1,162	16	55	63	661	52	7	53	201	2,427	0	9125
Total	22,597	17,686	10,348	287	629	3,467	16,597	13,718	3,118	11,452	11,503	45,051	9,125	165,578

Sector definitions:

1. Central Edinburgh
2. Edinburgh Commuter
3. Tayside, Aberdeen & Inverness (North East Scotland)
4. Far North
5. West Highland Lines
6. Shotts and Livingston (Central Belt South)
7. South West Scotland
8. North West Strathclyde
9. North East Strathclyde
10. South Strathclyde
11. South East Strathclyde
12. Central Glasgow
13. External Zones

• North East Strathclyde generates about 3,300 trips per day. This sector includes the routes to Maryhill, Springburn and Lenzie. The lower level of trips is consistent with the lower service frequency. About 75% of trips from this sector are made to Central Glasgow.
• The South Strathclyde sector includes the diesel routes to East Kilbride and Barrhead, plus the electric routes via Cathcart Circle, and generates about 12,000 trips per day. There are just 2,400 trips made within this sector per day. This is less than the level of internal trips made within North West or South West Strathclyde. It reflects the lack of a major destination for trips within the sector other than Central Glasgow. About 70% of journeys to Central Glasgow.
• There are about 12,000 trips per day from South East Strathclyde. About two thirds of the journeys are to/from Central Glasgow, with 1,700 trips within the sector. There are 1,100 trips to destinations in North West Glasgow. Although direct trains from South East to North West Glasgow have encouraged this pattern of journeys, the actual number of trips is relatively small.
• The sector generating the largest number of trips per day is Central Glasgow. This sector includes the Low and High Level stations at Glasgow Central and Queen Street, plus Charing Cross, Arygle Street and High Street. This is a reflection of the much higher frequency of train service and number of radial routes into Central Glasgow when compared to Edinburgh. The number of trips to Central Glasgow (42,600)is approximately double that of Central Edinburgh (22,600).
• There are about 9,000 trips per day in each direction from external zones, principally to Central Glasgow and Edinburgh.

Figure 3.13 shows the number of rail trips originating from different areas of Scotland and shows the dominance of the Central Belt as demand generator for rail.

Figure 3.13: Total Rail Passenger Trips per Day

Source: Arup analysis of LENNON data

3.3.4 Passenger Rail Travel into Edinburgh

Figure 3.14 uses a similar scale to Figure 3.13 to illustrate the significance of trips into Edinburgh, within the total rail passenger travel market. This shows visually, the conclusion from our analysis of the matrix in Figure 3.15 that the largest flow is between Edinburgh city centre and the commuter belt stations. There are also significant flows cross-border and to/from central Glasgow.

Figure 3.14: Daily Passenger Rail Flows into Edinburgh

Source: Arup analysis of LENNON data. Only flows greater than 500 trips per day illustrated.

Passenger rail planning tends to focus on providing sufficient capacity and resources for the commuter peak period and then to make best use of it for the rest of the time. The commuting flows into Edinburgh mean it is essential to understand the levels of crowding on specific service groups into Edinburgh during the peak period.

Figure 3.15 illustrates the magnitude of passenger flows, presented by individual routes into Edinburgh (arrivals at Edinburgh Waverley), with the line thickness proportional to the magnitude of flows during the 3-hour AM peak. We have also compared the accuracy of the modelled flows against observed count data provided by First ScotRail.

Figure 3.15: Passenger Arrivals to Edinburgh Waverley — (3 hour AM Peak)

Source: Arup Forecasting Model

Load factors have been calculated using the demand totals against total seated capacity (see Tables 3.6 and 3.7 below). It is worth emphasising the load factors represent average values during the AM peak period, and the load factors during the busiest hour may be higher. We also acknowledge that the load factors west of Haymarket are higher than the arrivals at Waverley.

We have validated our model using arrivals data at Waverley, since FSR counts do not include alighting passengers at Haymarket. Anecdotally, about 30% of passengers alight at Haymarket, so this must be taken into account when interpreting the load factors at Waverley. These observations indicate that many trains arriving at Waverley during the peak have standing passengers, although these trains are probably not overloaded in terms of the 35% standing capacity limit.

We have also considered load factors for the busiest hour. We have estimated the proportion of peak hour arrivals using FSR counts for individual train arrivals, and identified the train capacities for arrivals during the peak hour. Our analysis of the peak hour suggests that the issue of peak hour overcrowding may be less significant since FSR strengthen their rolling stock formations specifically to meet these travel patterns. There is less evidence of services arriving in the ‘shoulder-peak’ period (07.00-08.00, and 09.00 to 10.00) being strengthened. Separately, we have analysed loadings on individual peak trains on all the Edinburgh routes and noted a very high concentration of demand into the middle of the peak hour (around 0830). This causes some overcrowding on these services and explains the train strengthening.

Before commenting on the flows shown above in Figure 3.16 and load factors into Edinburgh shown in Table 3.7 it is useful to explain the calculation of load factors in a worked example. Table 3.6 shows that there are ten arrivals from Glasgow via Croy during the morning peak, with almost 2,300 passengers alighting at Waverley. Funding from the Scottish Executive has enabled procurement of additional rolling stock to ensure all peak trains between Glasgow and Edinburgh are formed of 6 cars. The additional capacity means about 35% of seats are unoccupied during the morning peak, although the busiest train(s) may have a small number of standing passengers. The peak hour load factor is slightly higher than the average load factor calculated for the whole 3 hour peak period. It should be noted that at Haymarket in the peak hour, most services will have a small number of standing passengers.

Table 3.6: Load Factor Calculations Worked Example

	3-hour AM Peak Period	AM Peak Hour
Total number of passengers	2281	1141 *
Train formations (peak period)	10 arrivals, 9 operate as 6 car sets, 1 as 3-car set	4 arrivals, each operates as 6-car set
Number of Seats	3667	1544
Load Factor	62%	74%

Source: Arup forecasting model. * Ratio of peak period to peak hour passenger numbers derived from First ScotRail counts.

Table 3.7 Edinburgh Load Factor Analysis (3-hour AM Peak)

Service Group	Observed Total (period)	Modelled Total (period)	Seated Capacity (period)	Load Factor (Seats, 3 hour AM peak)	Load Factor (Seats, Peak Hour)
Fife Circle (Local)	2,080	2,020	2,439	83%	73%
Newcraighall	n/a	151	828	18%	27%
North Berwick	799	685	1,824	38%	56%
Bathgate	1,026	1,134	1,794	63%	69%
Dunblane	1,061	919	1,159	64%	56%
Fife (Inter-Urban)	1,223	1,290	1,930	67%	111%
Glasgow via Falkirk	2,355	2,281	3,667	62%	74%
Glasgow via Shotts	439	388	600	65%	65%

Source: Arup forecasting model, First ScotRail

Our Baseline analysis identifies about 2,000 arrivals during the AM peak to Waverley from the Fife Circle local services. Trains operate both clockwise and anti-clockwise, with a total of 10 train arrivals during the morning peak. The introduction of some new Class 170 Turbostar trains has helped to address overcrowding problems on these services, as the new rolling stock has 63 additional seats compared with the Class 150 units that previously operated. The peak hour load factor is slightly lower than the overall ratio for the AM peak, four of the ten services arrive during the busiest hour, and these generally operate as 5-car trains. It should be noted that these figures would suggest a crowding problem at Haymarket across the 3-hour peak.

There are also significant longer distance flows travelling via Fife. There are ten trains from Aberdeen, Dundee, Perth and Inverness arriving before 10.00, and the Arup model estimates that 1,300 passengers currently use these trains. Local and inter-urban trains serve passengers from Inverkeithing and Kirkcaldy. The longer distance Fife services have a load factor of about 60%. The peak hour load factor is much higher, reflecting the lower number of train arrivals between 08.00 and 09.00. This would suggest quite significant crowding on these services upon arrival at both Central Edinburgh stations in the peak hour.

There are 2tph between Bathgate and Edinburgh. This is the maximum permitted frequency given the single line working on parts of the branch line. In the Baseline, almost 1,000 passengers arrive from Bathgate at Waverley in the 3-hour AM peak. Three of the services are formed by 3 sets of 2-car Class 158 units which are not ideal for commuter services. The load factor in the busiest hour and 3-hour peak is similar, because of strengthening of trains with additional rolling stock. There is not a crowding problem on this route at either Central Edinburgh Station.

There are 2tph between Dunblane and Edinburgh. Passengers from Polmont and Linlithgow can either board trains from Dunblane or the Glasgow services, and we have apportioned this journey based on journey time and frequency of each service. In the Baseline, there are about 900 arrivals from Edinburgh during the morning peak. Similar to the Fife local trains, the Dunblane route has lower load factors during the busiest hour, since the train formations are strengthened. Whilst there is not a crowding problem at Waverley, the figures suggest across the peak there is some crowding upon arrival at Haymarket.

‘Push-pull Mark 3’ rolling stock currently operates between North Berwick and Edinburgh. This is only a temporary solution, since the former Class 322 units were returned to the original franchisee. There are about 600 arrivals during the morning peak, but there is ample spare seating capacity on these trains at present.

There is a second FSR service between Glasgow and Edinburgh via Shotts. During the morning peak, the route in the eastbound direction primarily serves commuter trips east of Shotts to Edinburgh. There are almost 400 arrivals during the 3-hour AM peak, with three through services from Glasgow, and a shorter service working from West Calder. There is no evidence of a crowding problem at either Central Edinburgh station. There is an additional arrival during the peak hour, and this means the peak period load factors are unchanged.

In the Baseline, there are about 150 arrivals from Newcraighall during the morning peak. Our analysis shows there is ample spare capacity on this route. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the representation of trips in LENNON from Newcraighall may be under-estimated, given the utilisation of the park & ride. However, we are unable to validate our modelled flows, since there is no observed count data.

To supplement the load factor analysis, we have compared observed train loadings at Waverley with the expected train formations to understand crowding issues on the busiest trains in more detail. We have compared observed arrivals for the Glasgow via Falkirk High, Bathgate and local arrivals from Fife. The results indicated:

• From Bathgate, train loadings are generally over 80% except when 6-car trains operate during the AM peak. One train (the 0822 arrival at Waverley) has a small number of standing passengers reflecting its significantly higher number of passengers.
• Except for the 08.35 arrival from Glasgow (again, carrying significantly higher numbers of passengers), services via Falkirk High and Croy generally do not have significant crowding problems. This reflects the recent strengthening of train formations.
• There is very limited spare capacity on Fife trains arriving between 07.45 and 09.15, with passengers standing on most services at Haymarket and on some at Waverley.

3.3.5 Passenger Rail Travel to Glasgow

Figure 3.16 summarises the total number of daily trips to Glasgow. Similar to the data for Edinburgh, only sectors with at least 500 trips per day are shown. The sectors with the largest flows to Central Glasgow are from South and South East Strathclyde and South West Scotland. There are also reasonably significant flows from North West Strathclyde and Central Edinburgh.

Figure 3.16: Daily Passenger Rail Flows into Glasgow (500 trips per day)¹⁹

Source: Arup analysis of LENNON data. Only flows greater than 500 trips per day illustrated.

We have presented the patterns of peak rail travel into Glasgow using the following groupings:

• Strathclyde Electric — (North West);
• Strathclyde Electric — (North East);
• Strathclyde Electric — (South);
• Strathclyde Electric — (South East);
• Strathclyde Diesel — (Maryhill and Cumbernauld);
• Strathclyde Diesel — Barrhead and East Kilbride);
• Strathclyde Diesel — (Stirling corridor);
• Edinburgh via Croy.

Figure 3.17 illustrates the pattern of arrivals to central Glasgow by route and Table 3.8 shows load factors on each route

Figure 3.17: Baseline Passenger Arrivals to Central Glasgow (3-hour AM peak)

Source: Arup Forecasting Model

Table 3.8: Glasgow Load Factor Analysis (3-hour AM peak)

Service Group	Observed Total	Modelled Total (peak period)	Seated Capacity (peak period)	Load Factor (Seats, peak period)	Load Factor (Seats, peak hour)
Electrics — North West	5,916	5,982	9,936	63%	69%
Electrics — South East	10,480	9,289	12,528	77%	77%
Electrics — South West	6,340	5,967	7,000	85%	110%
Diesels (Barrhead, East Kilbride, Paisley Canal)	2,336	2,294	4,650	49%	48%
Diesels (Maryhill, Cumbernauld)	552	430	1,050	43%	48%
Diesels (Stirling corridor)	2,411	2,191	1,974	84%	66%
Edinburgh via Falkirk High	2,220	2,333	3,281	71%	76%

Source: Arup forecasting model, First ScotRail

Similar to the Baseline pattern of Edinburgh arrivals, the Edinburgh to Glasgow trains are relatively busy, carrying nearly 2,300 passengers into Glasgow across the 3-hour AM peak, although over the course of the 3 hour peak, about 30% of the seats are unoccupied. This demonstrates the crowding relief from strengthening train formations to 6-car sets.

In the Baseline, trains on the Stirling corridor bring about 2,200 passengers into Glasgow in the 3-hour AM peak. This grouping includes inter-urban services from Aberdeen and Perth, and the stopping services from Dunblane/Stirling. About 15% of seats are free during the AM peak. Although the journey time from local stations south of Croy is relatively short, the timings from Stirling are longer (non-stop services from Stirling to Glasgow take 35 minutes, and this is significantly longer than the First ScotRail target of a maximum 10 minutes standing time). The peak hour load factors are lower, since there are a higher number of trains arriving after 09.00 from the Aberdeen corridor.

Class 156 trains currently operate on the East Kilbride route using a mixture of single, twin, and triple formations. Some platforms have been recently lengthened to accommodate 6-car trains. An increased number of 6-car trains will operate on the Eat Kilbride route, following the deployment of additional rolling stock after the introduction of more Class 170s onto Glasgow Queen Street High Level services. The average AM peak load factor is about 50%.

In the Baseline, 2,300 passengers arrive into Glasgow on the Barrhead, Paisley Canal and East Kilbride trains. The load factor for the AM peak hour is similar to the ratio for the total 3-hour AM peak reflecting the deployment of rolling stock. There is not a crowding problem on this route. The situation is similar on the Maryhill and Cumbernauld services.

The South West electric services to the Ayrshire coast bring some of the largest volumes of passengers into Glasgow across the 3-hour AM peak. There is an average load factor of 86% across the 3-hour AM peak, with over 6,000 arrivals to Central Glasgow. The peak hour load factor is 110%, despite several trains operating as 6-car formations. This reflects both the concentration of demand in the this hour and the arrival of early flights into Prestwick Airport. This high level analysis conceals a much more significant overcrowding problem on the Ayr, Ardrossan and Largs services compared to the Gourock and Wemyss Bay services. Just over two thirds of the 3-hour AM peak passengers from the South West electric services travel on the routes to Ayr, Ardrossan and Largs. Over the 3-hour AM peak these services load to just over 100%. The trend on the overall group of services suggests this figure will rise significantly in the peak hour.

The electric services from Airdrie, Motherwell, Lanark and Springburn have an average load factor of 77% during the AM peak period. In the Basline, these account for a significant proportion of Glasgow 3-hour AM peak arrivals (about 10,000). This proportion includes arrivals at the Low Level stations at both Glasgow Central and Glasgow Queen Street, together with the terminating trains from the Cathcart Circle. The peak hour load factor is similar to the ratio for the 3-hour period, since FSR strengthen selected arrivals during the busiest hour.

Arrivals from the North West of Glasgow on electric services also convey nearly 6,000 passengers in the 3-hour AM peak, but in total do not have a crowding problem.

We have also analysed the pattern and magnitude of cross-city trips in Glasgow:

• There are frequent cross-city trains via Glasgow Central or Queen Street Low Level stations from the North West to the South East. The through trains should encourage through trips. However, compared with the number of journeys to Central Glasgow, the number of cross-city trips is relatively small. There are just 1,100 journeys per day in each direction. Over half (580) are from Partick in the North West. The remainder are more evenly distributed on the routes, although stations around both Amiesland and Rutherglen are significant generators of trips too.
• There are only 50 trips per day in each direction between North East and South West Glasgow. There are no direct trains at present, and the lack of an easy interchange between the two central Glasgow termini discourage trips by rail.

3.3.6 Rail Travel to Regional Centres

In addition to analysing the rail travel patterns to Glasgow and Edinburgh, we have reviewed the number and distribution of trips to five regional centres: Inverness, Stirling, Perth, Dundee and Aberdeen. This information is presented as one-way all-day totals. Although factors could be applied to derive approximate flows for the AM peak, the profile of travel patterns to regional centres tends to differ from bigger cities like Glasgow and Edinburgh. Furthermore, the availability of observed count data to validate these flows is significantly more limited. Passenger flows are presented using the same geographical headings as described earlier, but only flows that exceed 50 trips per day are illustrated using the summary diagrams.

3.3.6.1 Inverness

There are about 2,450 single trips to Inverness per day. Almost 50% of the trips originate from North East Scotland, with about one-third of trips from the Highland Line, and two-thirds from the Aberdeen line. There are about 300 trips from both Central Edinburgh and Glasgow, and about 200 trips from the Far North Lines. This demonstrates the importance of Inverness as a destination for the Far North Lines. There are fewer than 50 trips from stations north of Inverness to stations south or east of Inverness.

Figure 3.18: Arrivals to Inverness

Source: Arup analysis of LENNON data

3.3.6.2 Stirling

There are over 4,500 trips per day to Stirling, with about a third of trips originating from Central Glasgow. 1-2tph run fast to Glasgow, along with an additional half-hourly stopping service. About a quarter of trips originate from Central Edinburgh, which is served by a half-hourly stopping service. There are about 850 trips from the Edinburgh commuter routes, reflecting the importance of local journeys from Dunblane, Linlithgow and Polmont.

Figure 3.19: Arrivals to Stirling

Source: Arup analysis of LENNON data

3.3.6.3 Dundee

There are 4,000 single journeys per day to Dundee. About 1,500 trips originate from North East Scotland, with about 75% originating from stations to Aberdeen, and about 25% from Perth. There are few trips from north of Perth on the Highland line. Both Glasgow and Edinburgh are served by hourly trains from Dundee. Edinburgh is a more popular destination than Glasgow, with about 770 compared to 420 trips per day. There are almost 550 trips per day from external zones, with the direct GNER and VXC trains encouraging longer distance journeys. The demand on local rail services to Dundee is small, with less than 30 trips between Carnoustie and Dundee, and just a handful of trips from other local stations between Invergowie and Golf Street.

Figure 3.20: Arrivals to Dundee

Source: Arup analysis of LENNON data

3.3.6.4 Aberdeen

There are 5,700 single trips per day to Aberdeen. Over half of the journeys originate from North East Scotland demonstrating the importance of Aberdeen as a major destination for local trips, mainly from the Arbroath line. There are about 800 trips per day from both Central Glasgow and Edinburgh, demonstrating the significance of longer distance city centre to city centre movements. Similar to Dundee, there are also a reasonable number of journeys from external zones reflecting the longer distance trains that operate from the city. There are relatively few cross-Aberdeen rail trips at present, for example, between Dyce and Stonehaven.

Figure 3.21: Arrivals from Aberdeen

Source: Arup analysis of LENNON data

3.3.6.5 Perth

Perth is an important regional station interchange between the Highland Line, and the routes to Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen. There are 1,800 trips per day to Perth. In contrast to Dundee, Glasgow is a more important destination than Edinburgh. This is consistent with the present service frequency, hourly to Glasgow, whereas there are just nine trains per day to Edinburgh (including the GNER service). Journeys from North East Scotland generate over 750 trips per day, mainly from Dundee.

Figure 3.22: Arrivals from Perth

Source: Arup analysis of LENNON data

3.3.7 Market Segmentation Differences

Figure 3.23 Market Segmentation by Scottish city

Source: Arup analysis of LENNON data

Figure 3.23 uses LENNON ticket data²⁰ to examine the relative importance of different rail markets in the Scottish cities. In the figure, season tickets indicate commuter demand, full fare tickets indicate business trips and reduced fare tickets indicate leisure travel. The analysis shows:

• the relative importance of the commuting market in Glasgow and Edinburgh (unsurprising, given their importance to the Scottish economy);
• the almost equal relative importance of business travel from all Scottish cities by rail; and
• the overwhelming importance of leisure travel across Scotland (although this may cover a wide variety of purposes, such as shopping and visiting hospitals as well as true leisure trips). Some non-leisure trips may be hidden in this total.

3.3.8 Cross-Border Passenger Rail Travel

About 95% of rail trips are wholly within Scotland, with the remaining 5% (or 5.2m journeys per annum) cross-border trips²¹. Figure 3.24 illustrates the distribution of cross-border rail trips.

Figure 3.24: Distribution of Cross-Border Passenger Trips

Source: Arup analysis of LENNON data

The North West is the single largest destination outside Scotland, with around 3,200 single journeys in each direction per day. This region includes the important population centres of Manchester, Liverpool and Preston, and is served by frequent VWC and VXC trains on the WCML. The ECML is also important. There are about 300 trips per day to Northumberland and almost 1,000 to Tyne and Wear. Furthermore, there are nearly 1,100 trips per day to Yorkshire and the Humber, reflecting the direct trains from both Leeds (1tph) and York (2tph). In spite of the strong competition with air, there are almost 2,000 trips per day in each direction between Scotland and southern England. Both GNER and VWC operate regular services to London, whilst the VXC network offers direct connections with principal cities in the South West, the Midlands and the North with Scotland.

Trips from Central Edinburgh and Central Glasgow form the largest cross-border flows. Figure 3.25 shows the number of single cross-border journeys per day in each direction originating from Central Glasgow or Edinburgh to the various sectors in England and Wales. It is interesting to note there are a larger number of cross-border trips to Central Edinburgh than Glasgow. This trend may be a function of railway geography (good accessibility from most parts of the UK via the ECML), but also the greater importance of Edinburgh as the administrative and financial centre of Scotland and as a tourist destination, possibly evidenced by the higher number of trips from southern England. The size of the Edinburgh to London rail market is the main contributory factor, despite strong competition with other modes, principally air.

Figure 3.25: Daily Single Passenger Rail Trips from Edinburgh and Glasgow

Source: Arup analysis of LENNON data

There are two main reasons for the higher number of cross-border trips from London to Edinburgh compared with Glasgow.

• The typical journey time between London and Edinburgh is about 4.5 hours, with the fastest train covering the distance in about 4 hours.
• In contrast, the current journey times on the West Coast Main Line to London are 5-5.25 hours (fastest is 4 hours 45 minutes), although journey times will be reduced from December 2008 when 125mph operation will be introduced between Preston and Glasgow. Furthermore, the engineering possessions required to implement the WCML upgrade effectively reduced the railway to a 5-day operation rather than 7-day, which affected the weekend leisure market over the period from which the LENNON data was extracted.

There are significantly more trips to Edinburgh from Northumberland than to Glasgow. This is a function of geography, reflecting the shorter distance to the Scottish capital and the fast, frequent rail services from Berwick-upon-Tweed to Edinburgh (typically 2tph). There is only a direct train every other hour to Glasgow. Edinburgh is also an important centre of economic activity and services for this part of Northumberland. Distance is also relevant for the greater number of trips from Tyne & Wear to Edinburgh.

The number of cross-border trips from Carlisle to Glasgow and Edinburgh is similar. This result is slightly surprising, since Glasgow has a better rail service from Carlisle compared with Edinburgh.

There are just 20 trips per day from Wales to Edinburgh or Glasgow. This reflects the distance, and the relative size of the population catchments in Wales, compared with the other external zones.

3.3.9 Principal Rail Passenger Flows

Table 3.9 lists the twenty principal passenger flows in Scotland. Glasgow to Edinburgh dominates. There are 2.1m journeys per annum between Glasgow and Edinburgh. This total includes the high frequency service via Croy, plus the less frequent trains via Motherwell, and the stopping service via Shotts. The total reflects the importance of both cities as origins and destinations, principally using reduced tickets, although there are still important flows using season and full fare tickets.

Table 3.9: Twenty Busiest Flows in Scotland

Flow	No. of Trips	Flow	No. of Trips
Glasgow — Edinburgh	2,114,169	Edinburgh — Yorkshire	385,637
Paisley GS — Glasgow	894,305	Edinburgh — Dunfermline	380,091
Edinburgh — Linlithgow	621,201	Stirling — Edinburgh	368,810
London — Edinburgh	600,162	Kilwinning — Glasgow	359,781
Inverkeithing — Edinburgh	594,656	East Kilbride — Glasgow	335,481
Kirkcaldy — Edinburgh	564,044	Airdrie — Charing Cross	332,572
Edinburgh — Bathgate	492,532	Ayr — Glasgow Central	313,021
Johnston — Glasgow Central	481,504	Edinburgh — Tyne & Wear	326,750
Edinburgh — Livingstone North	461,628	Motherwell — Glasgow	290,562
Stirling — Glasgow	392,970	Hyndland - Glasgow	285,860

Source: Arup analysis of LENNON data

The second busiest flow in Scotland is Paisley Gilmour Street to Glasgow. About 0.9m journeys per annum are made between Paisley Gilmour Street and Central Glasgow. This total reflects the high 8tph frequency from this station due to the convergence of routes from Wemyss Bay/Gourock and Ayr/Largs. Paisley Gilmour Street also acts as the main gateway rail station to Glasgow International Airport.

There are four other rail flows in Scotland with at least 500,000 journeys per annum. There are significant flows from Linlithgow, Inverkeithing, & Kirkcaldy to Edinburgh. There are high levels of commuting to Central Edinburgh from these stations (the proportion of season tickets from these stations ranges from 25-41%. Despite strong competition with other modes, principally air, there are 600,000 trips per annum between Edinburgh and London.

 

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