Scottish Planning Assessment Part 1 Volume 1

2 Scotland Today

2.1 Purpose of Chapter

This chapter defines the study area for the SPA and the sub-divisions within it that were used for our analysis. It then describes the current nature of Scotland and the main recent trends within it. It describes the geography of the country and its planning regime. It then presents facts about the study area today covering population, economic activity, income and social exclusion.

2.2 The Study Area

2.2.1 Overview

Around two thirds of Scotland’s population live in one of the five major city regions of Scotland (Edinburgh, Glasgow, Aberdeen, Inverness and Dundee). The cities are important generators of wealth; 40% of Scotland’s employment is located within the five city authorities, a disproportionate amount of which is high-value employment. Edinburgh and Glasgow alone generate almost one third of Scottish GDP².

The economic and demographic shifts that have occurred across Scotland in the last few decades mirror those seen across much of the industrialised world — rapid restructuring of the economy towards a service base has occurred in parallel with large scale urban — suburban/rural population shift out of the major industrial/former industrial and port cities into their hinterlands. In more recent times, there has been some revitalisation of city centres — in some cities, and in particular Glasgow, this has been regeneration-led.

The transition to a service sector-based economy has benefited Edinburgh and its hinterland, which has built on its traditional strengths in financial and business services and high-level public administration functions.

Aberdeen and the North East economy has grown significantly in recent decades, mainly driven by the off-shore oil and gas industries.

Whilst being the drivers for employment and wealth in the country, the cities are also the location of some of the highest deprivation in Scotland with the resulting economic and social consequences.

Outside of the city regions, much of Scotland is predominantly rural, with many areas being particularly geographically remote and poorly connected. Rail plays an important role in providing connections to some rural areas. There is a structural trend of depopulation from remote rural areas. In the Highlands, Inverness has grown and prospered in recent years, fulfilling the role as the primary hub for businesses and services for its extensive hinterland.

Figure 2.1 overleaf shows Scotland’s major settlements and transport infrastructure. The country’s transport infrastructure is described and analysed in Chapter 3.

Figure 2.1: Scotland, its Significant Settlements and Transport Network

Source: Arup

2.2.2 The Study Area’s Boundaries

The SPA will cover the whole of Scotland as well as examining the flows of freight and passenger transport by rail across the border with England. This study area definition will allow the potentially competing demands of suburban passenger, longer distance passenger, freight and cross-border services to be considered explicitly.

2.2.3 Use of Planning Review Sub—Regions and Railway Sub-Groups

We elected to use a different sub-division of the study area for the Planning Review compared with the sub-groups proposed for the Railway Analysis. The Planning Review sub-regions selected are largely consistent with the administrative boundaries in Scotland at the time of our study. Importantly, these are consistent with the likely format of population and employment data, as well as the development of Scottish national policy.

However, this division does not fit well with the geography of the rail network and would not provide sufficient focus and clarity to our analysis of the capacity and capability of the Scottish railway network. Consequently we have nominated railway sub-groups that are more consistent with present railway geography.

By bringing the two sub-divisions together we will be able to present clearly the issues created for the railway network by passenger and freight demand growth and the requirements of Scottish spatial and economic policy and plans.

2.2.4 Planning Review Sub-Regions

For the purposes of the Planning Review analysis for this report, Scotland was divided into six regions, as shown on Figure 2.2. These areas are broadly coterminous with the six mainland Regional Transport Partnerships proposed by the Scottish Executive in July 2005³. The main difference is that the proposed South West RTP is smaller than the region used for this study, which includes South Ayrshire, East Ayrshire and Clydesdale in South Lanarkshire⁴.

Figure 2.2: The Six Planning Assessment Regions in Scotland

Source: Arup

2.2.5 Railway Sub-Groups

We defined ten railway sub-groups as the basis for Railway Analysis during Baselining. This was completed in liaison with Network Rail and takes account of railway geography (including the key pinchpoints), passenger service characteristics (longer distance versus local), frequency and traction (diesel or electric). Most freight services cross the boundaries of these railway subgroups. Although the analysis of these services and associated network issues was superimposed onto the sub-group structure, we have also presented an overview of the main network issues associated with freight. We have also split the services to Glasgow into services that terminate at Glasgow Central (High Level), or operate as through services via Glasgow Central (Low Level). The following were the railway sub-groups used:

• Glasgow North Electric Routes: services to Helensburgh, Balloch, Milngavie, Dalmuir, Springburn and Airdrie/Drumgelloch;
• Glasgow South West Electric Routes: services via Paisley Gilmour Street to Ayr, Gourock, Wemyss Bay, Largs, Ardrossan;
• Glasgow South East Electric Routes: services to Lanark, Motherwell, Neilston and Newton;
• Glasgow Diesel Routes: routes from Glasgow Queen Street and Glasgow Central including East Kilbride, Barrhead, Kilmarnock, Whifflet, Paisley Canal, Anniesland and via Shotts to Haymarket East Junction;
• Edinburgh to Glasgow via Croy Route: this includes services on this route from Glasgow to Stirling/Dunblane;
• Other Inter-Urban Routes: Edinburgh/Glasgow to Aberdeen, Edinburgh/Glasgow to Inverness and Aberdeen to Inverness;
• Edinburgh Local Routes: Newcraighall, Dunblane, Bathgate (Edinburgh Crossrail), Fife Circle, North Berwick (including a complete analysis of capacity from Drem — Waverley — Haymarket);
• Anglo-Scottish Routes: East Coast Main Line (ECML) to Berwick, West Coast Main Line (WCML) from Glasgow southwards (including services via Carstairs to Edinburgh) and the Glasgow South Western (GSW) route to Carlisle;
• Rural Routes — North: routes to Fort William, Oban and Mallaig (north of Helensburgh), and Inverness to Kyle of Lochalsh and Wick/Thurso); and
• Rural Routes — South: route to Stranraer south of Ayr.

2.3 The Planning Regime within Scotland

Since local government reorganisation in 1996, Structure Plans have been prepared for all of Scotland. In Ayrshire, Glasgow and Clyde Valley, Stirling and Clackmannanshire, Edinburgh and the Lothians, Dundee and Angus, and Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire, authorities jointly prepare plans. Elsewhere, unitary authorities prepare plans. All authorities additionally prepare one or more local plans to cover their entire area. Some of the Structure Plans are currently being updated, and consequently the end dates for the plan periods range from around 2010 to around 2025, making nation-wide comparisons difficult. Rates of housing growth anticipated by recent consultation draft plans for Glasgow Clyde Valley (2005) and Ayrshire (2004) are considerably higher than those set out in the Scottish Executive’s National Planning Framework (2004).

The plan-led system in Scotland is currently proposed to be reformed⁵. If the proposals are enacted in the forthcoming Planning Bill, all authorities will prepare local development plans and authorities in the four main city regions, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Dundee and Aberdeen, will jointly prepare City Region Plans for these areas. The Scottish Executive will discuss national priorities with City Region Plan authorities in respect of their areas.

Under the proposals set out in the White Paper for Transport⁶ a National Transport Strategy will be produced. At the regional level, seven statutory Regional Transport Partnerships are proposed, with a duty of producing Regional Transport Strategies.

2.4 Population Within Scotland

2.4.1 Overview

Scotland is highly urbanised in population terms. Two thirds of the population live in the five major Scottish cities: Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen, Dundee, and Inverness. Population is heavily concentrated in the Central Belt of Scotland.

The principal demographic drivers for change over recent decades have been:

• declining total population (due to reduced fertility rates and out-migration);
• declining household size (due to declining marriage rates and increased divorce rates, combined with reduced fertility);
• urban-rural/suburban shift; and
• an ageing population (due to reduced fertility and increased life expectancy).

The combination of these principal drivers has led to an increase in number of households even as population has been falling.

Scottish cities have generally lost population since the 1960s. The principal movement out of cities has been to the region which immediately surrounds them. Key beneficiaries of population outflow from the Scottish cities have been East and West Lothian, the Scottish Borders, and Stirling. To an extent, this has been a policy-driven trend, with 150,000 people induced to leave Glasgow for overspill areas between 1950 and 1980, for example. For all cities, household growth has been faster in the surrounding city region than the core city itself.⁷

City regions have therefore been growing in terms of population and economy, which combined with these migratory patterns, means that city growth but with increased decentralisation is now the prevailing pattern across Scotland.

2.4.2 Population Density

Population is heavily concentrated in the Central Belt between Edinburgh and Glasgow and the other Scottish cities, as shown in Figure 2.3. This reflects their role as the main generators of employment and wealth. The most densely populated Council Area (Glasgow City) is home to 3,290 persons per km².

By contrast, the northern and Border areas of Scotland are very lightly populated with the least populous area of Scotland (Highland) housing just 8 persons per km² (although this conceals the concentration of population in Inverness and around the Inner Moray Firth).

The Scottish average density is 65 persons per square kilometre, which is a reflection of the large rural areas in the Highlands, Borders and Islands.

Figure 2.3: Population Density in Scotland by Local Authority Area (persons per km²)

Source: Arup/ONS/General Register Office for Scotland

2.4.3 Population Trends

Scotland’s total population is slightly over 5 million, and has been falling over the last 30 years in comparison with the GB population, which has been rising over the same time period.

Figure 2.4: Population Change in Scotland and Great Britain 1971-2001 (Index 1971 = 100)

Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates, Office for National Statistics

2.4.4 Population Change by Region

In the last ten years, population has fallen in the Western sub-region of Scotland most rapidly — mid-2003 population estimates show a 4% decrease in population since 1993, and a 10% decrease since 1983. This is a reflection of the restructuring of the economy away from manufacturing.

By contrast, the fastest growing of the six planning regions over 20 years is the North East (6% overall increase since 1983, although this masks a more recent decrease (by 1%) since 1993, suggesting population growth has peaked). This reflects the impact of the off-shore oil and gas industry on the region. This is followed by the South East which has shown a more recent pattern of population growth (3% since 1993 and 4% since 1983) reflecting the growth of Edinburgh as a centre for service sector employment.

Figure 2.5: Population Change by Planning Region

Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates, Office for National Statistics

2.4.5 Population Change by Council Area

Analysis of population change at Council level (in Figure 2.6, below) shows a pattern of de-urbanisation from two of Scotland’s largest cities — Aberdeen and Glasgow. Aberdeen has seen a decline in population of 5% in the last ten years, whilst the surrounding Local Authority of Aberdeenshire has experienced 3% population growth over the same period (and 15% since 1983). Glasgow City, similarly, has experienced a 6% and 20% fall in population over the last 10 and 20 years respectively, along with the surrounding urban areas of Renfrewshire, North and South Lanarkshire, East and West Dunbartonshire, and North and East Ayrshire. The spatial expansion of the major cities’ Travel To Work areas in the past decade (as discussed in the City Region boundaries research for the Scottish Executive, 2002⁸) further demonstrates this trend. This is an important factor affecting peak and leisure travel demand.

The City of Edinburgh has experienced population growth along with the entire South East planning region (with the exception of Clackmannanshire). However, the growth in Edinburgh City (2% since 1993) is considerably lower than the growth in the surrounding small towns and commuter hinterland, in particular West and East Lothian (11% and 7% respectively, over the same time period).

Figure 2.6: Population Change by Council 1993-2003

Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates, Office for National Statistics

2.4.6 Population Change in the Cities

The de-urbanisation trend has been a long term phenomenon. Population has declined in most of the Scottish Cities since the 1960s⁹. Since 1983, population has fallen in Aberdeen, Dundee and Glasgow. This has been most pronounced in Glasgow, whose population has fallen around 18% in 20 years (see Table 2.1 and Figure 2.7, below). Glasgow experienced a sharp decline in population for the twenty years from the early 1960s to the early 1980s, which has levelled off in the last decade9.

Dundee has also experienced an almost 14% decline in population over the twenty year period.

Aberdeen grew considerably between the 1960s and early 1980s, but has been experiencing a decline in population over the twenty year period 1983-2003 of just over 3%.

By contrast, Edinburgh has had resurgence in population of around 1.5% since the early 1980s, although it had previously been falling since the early 1960s; Edinburgh’s population in 2003 was roughly 93% of its 1961 level.

Stirling has been the most successful of Scotland’s cities in terms of retaining population, and has experienced growth over the twenty years of around 7%.

Table 2.1: Population of Scottish Cities 1983 - 2003

Source: Office for National Statistics, Mid-Year Population Estimates

Figure 2.7: Population Change in Scottish Cities 1983-2003 (Index 1983 = 100)

Source: Office for National Statistics, Mid-Year Population Estimates

2.5 Economic Activity within Scotland

2.5.1 Overview

The defining characteristics of the Scottish economy are familiar to most post-industrial western economies. Scotland has undergone massive restructuring of the economy away from the traditional manufacturing base towards a service-led economy. Those cities which have been able to attract high-value, wealth-creating service sector industries (notably Edinburgh) have been well-placed to benefit from this, whereas those more heavily dependent on manufacturing or primary industry (Glasgow historically and, perhaps in future, Aberdeen), have not fared so well.

There was protracted economic decline in all cities except Edinburgh and Aberdeen during the 1980s. Cities (such as Glasgow) with a traditionally large manufacturing sector suffered especially high levels of job losses.

The 1990s saw a shift in this pattern, with jobs in cities increasing whilst rural jobs declined (although some particular types of rural employment were growing). With the exception of Dundee, all cities showed a more robust performance over the 1990s than their surrounding regions.

The economy continues to be driven by Glasgow and Edinburgh which, between them, generate a significant proportion of Scottish GDP. At present, Greater Glasgow produces around a third of Scottish output and Greater Edinburgh one fifth¹⁰. Glasgow continues to be the fourth largest manufacturing city in the UK. It is important to emphasise that manufacturing remains important to the Greater Glasgow economy despite industry restructuring.

The North East area, and Aberdeen in particular, is heavily reliant on the North Sea oil and gas industry which, until now, has ensured that the city and its hinterland have been wealth creating and attracted population influx. The depletion of oil reserves leaves the North East with particular economic challenges to surmount.

2.5.2 Economic Performance

A general measure of economic performance is provided by Gross Value Added (GVA), another term for the measure of GDP at basic prices¹¹.

Figure 2.8 shows Scotland’s GVA has performed poorly relative to the rest of the UK over the seven year period 1998-2004 with an average rate of growth of 11% over the period, as compared with 16% in the UK economy as a whole.

Figure 2.8: GVA Trends in Scotland and the UK (Index, 2001=100)

Source: ONS/Scottish Executive

2.5.3 Structure of Industry in Scotland

Figure 2.9 shows the change in industrial structure of Scotland, comparing employment by industry in December 1995 and December 2004. The pattern of deindustrialisation is apparent here with service sectors showing increased levels of employment (for example, 91,000 new jobs in Banking Finance and Insurance over the period a 28% increase). By contrast, primary and secondary industries show a marked decrease in employment (for example, 26% in Manufacturing and 22% in Agriculture and Fishing) over the same period.

The level of public service employment increased 11% over the period. This is the largest sector for employment in Scotland.

This pattern of employment growth in the service sector is mirrored across the UK. Wealth creation is strongly correlated with service sector employment across the UK as a whole, therefore areas with strong service sector industries (in particular the wealth-creating industries in Financial and Business Services) are likely to have better economic prospects. Conversely, those areas which are heavily reliant on declining industries such as manufacturing will find themselves increasingly challenged to perform economically.

Figure 2.9: Employment by Industry Sector 1995 — 2004

Source: Office for National Statistics from NOMIS

2.5.4 Industrial Structure by Sub Region

The trends in industrial structure discussed above are well-represented by workplace based employment in each sub-region (shown in Figure 2.10 below).

Figure 2.10: Workplace based employment by industry

Source: Local Area Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics from NOMIS

Figure 2.11 shows the total level of employment in the service sector by Local Authority. Total service sector employment in Scotland, for comparison, is 74%. Service sector employment is particularly strong in the cities of Edinburgh and Glasgow and surrounding areas, and in Highland (primarily hospitality and tourism employment).

Figure 2.11: Employment in Services (workplace based)

Source: Annual Business Inquiry, 2003

Employment in the six Planning Review Sub-Regions as compared with the Scottish average is as follows:

• Highlands and Islands retains a higher than average reliance on agriculture and fishing (6% of total employment, compared with 3% nationally) and public sector employment (34% compared with 29%) and has lower levels of Banking, Finance and Insurance and Manufacturing than Scotland as a whole.
• The North East is heavily reliant on the employment provided by the North Sea Oil industry (10% employment in energy and water compared with 3% nationally) and, to a lesser extent, by tourism (22% employment in Hotels and Restaurants compared with 20%). By comparison it has relatively low levels of employment in the Banking, Finance and Insurance and in the public sector. Total service sector employment is 69% as compared with 74% nationally, which is the lowest level of all the six regions.
• The Central and Tay region is broadly in line with the Scottish average industrial structure; that is to say reliant on public sector employment, banking and other financial services, and also the tourism and hospitality industries.
• The West is least reliant on primary industries (Agriculture and Fishing, and Energy and Water) of all the regions. Conversely, the level of tertiary (service sector) employment is the highest of all the regions at 77% (compared with 74% nationally). The proportion of employment in Banking, Finance and Insurance is less in excess of the national average then the total service sector employment, suggesting a concentration of jobs in the lower paying industries in the service sector. There is slightly less employment in tourism in the West region than the Scottish average.
• The South East has the highest share of employment in Banking, Finance and Insurance of any region, as might be expected of the region containing the capital city — 16% compared with 12% across Scotland as a whole. In other sectors, the South East is broadly in line with the national pattern of industry.
• The South West is the region most heavily reliant on manufacturing (15% compared with 12% nationally). In addition there is a high proportion of employment in Hotels and Restaurants. In other sectors employment is broadly in line with Scotland as a whole, although slightly lower in the service sector industries than the average.

2.6 Income and Deprivation

2.6.1 Median Wage

Figure 2.12 presents the average wage in each Local Authority as it related to the overall Scottish average wage. Average wage tends to be highest in the city areas and those immediately surrounding them, reflecting the wealth-generating role of the cities in Scotland (observed across the UK as a whole). More rural areas tend to have a low average wage. It is interesting to note that whilst both Edinburgh and Glasgow have much higher levels of service sector employment than Scotland as a whole, the average wage in Edinburgh is higher than that of Glasgow, reflecting a higher concentration of wealth generating service sector businesses in Edinburgh, the administrative and financial centre of Scotland. This confirms the issue highlighted above, that in Glasgow there are a greater number of ‘lower end’ service sector jobs available.

Figure 2.12: Workplace-Based Earnings Relative to Scotland (Scotland = 100)

Source: New Earnings Survey 2003 (Note: Authorities with statistically unreliable data (low sample size or high standard deviation) have been removed.)

2.6.2 Deprivation

Despite trends in workplace-based earnings (as above), deprivation (as is the trend across the UK) is frequently observed in large urban areas. In Scotland, deprivation is an especially acute problem around the Glasgow Clyde Valley, where the effects of restructuring away from manufacturing has been most acute. Figure 2.13 below shows deprivation, as measured by the Scottish Indices of Deprivation (SID). This is made up of a series of indicators on types of deprivation (including health deprivation, income deprivation, access to services etc), presented at the level of a small statistical unit known as a data zone¹². The overall SIMD (Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation) is a composite measure of this series of indices and ranks each output area in terms of its deprivation (at Local Authority level, 1 indicates the most deprived and 32 the least deprived).

Figure 2.13: Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation by Local Authority

Source: Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation, 2004

2.7 Conclusions

Scotland’s economy and population exhibit the following broad characteristics, to which rail investment priorities must respond:

• Scotland, as with other post-industrial western economies, is in the process of managing economic restructuring. The shift from a manufacturing base to a service driven economy has been felt particularly in and around Glasgow, whilst the effect on Edinburgh has been mitigated by its role as the administrative and financial powerhouse of Scotland. Nevertheless, manufacturing remains important to Glasgow.
• Aberdeen and surrounding area has been cushioned from this, to an extent, by the presence of the North Sea oil and gas industry. As oil and gas reserves start to be depleted, so the area will face similar issues of economic decline and face the same problems of restructuring as have been faced in recent decades by manufacturing-driven local economies across the UK.
• Population trends are showing overall decline (with the exception of Edinburgh and its hinterland) and have shown urban — rural/suburban shift to be the predominant movement. As city centres have depopulated, so the smaller towns and attractive rural areas surrounding cities have become sought-after locations for population. In recent years some city centres have exhibited a resurgence in population growth as regeneration initiatives encourage city centre living. This can be expected to continue to an extent but is unlikely to outweigh the rural shift effect.
• Cities which have been, and will continue to be, successful are those which deliver the conditions vital for the wealth-creating service sector industries — good intercity and commuter transport networks, high quality of life, and good quality, affordable housing in the rural hinterland. Rail can assist in delivering these favourable conditions.
• City regions are the drivers of growth across Scotland. Employment is naturally highest in cities, as are wages. The rail network has an important role to play in supporting the strength of cities, both by the facilitating fast, high quality intercity connections vital to business, and by allowing cities to draw in employees from the small towns and suburban and rural hinterland which surrounds them. Fast and reliable movement of labour into city centre will be vital in supporting the efficient functioning of cities.