Scottish Planning Assessment Part 1 Volume 1

3.2 Baseline Overall Passenger Travel Patterns

As described in Chapter 1, we used data from the TMfS and from LENNON to identify the magnitude and pattern of strategic travel patterns in Scotland. We assessed the magnitude and pattern of movements between:

We also took into account the highway flows from sectors that will be rail served by 2010 (the Borders, Alloa and Edinburgh/Glasgow airports).

Flows are categorised by the magnitude and strength of demand into weak (less than 500 trips per hour), low (less than 1,000 trips per hour), medium (less than 5,000 trips per hour) and high (more than 5,000 trips per hour. This information is presented in tabular (Table 3.2) and graphical format (Figures 3.8 and 3.9). The combined road/rail totals are dominated by car trips. Only medium or high flows are represented on the diagrams.

Generally, our analysis shows the importance of the Central Belt and the cities within it as passenger trip generators. There are significant numbers of internal trips within central Edinburgh, the Edinburgh commuter belt, South West Scotland, North East Scotland, South East Strathclyde and South Strathclyde. Other important flows include:

• Central Edinburgh to/from the Edinburgh commuter belt; and
• Central Glasgow to/from South West Scotland, North West Strathclyde, North East Strathclyde.

There are relatively few trips from the West Highland and Far North sectors. Whilst the level of trip generation from these sectors is lower because of the low population densities, the survey data used to compile these matrices may also be less comprehensive.

It is interesting to note that the flows from central Edinburgh to the defined sectors in Strathclyde are classified as ‘low’, despite the M8 motorway being the busiest in Scotland. We have defined five sectors covering Strathclyde and South West Scotland. If the total trips from Central Edinburgh to Strathclyde are aggregated, the average hourly flows using the motorway become significant. This demonstrates the origin/destination of trip patterns using the motorway are relatively dispersed. A similar conclusion can be drawn for the usage of the Forth Road Bridge.

Figure 3.8: Summary of Strategic Travel Movements in Scotland — Average Trips per Hour

Source: Arup analysis of Transport Model for Scotland

Figure 3.9: Summary of Strategic Travel Movements (Central Belt) — Average Trips per Hour

Source: Arup analysis of Transport Model for Scotland

Table 3.2: Strategic Hourly Travel Patterns in Scotland (using Arup analysis of the Transport Model for Scotland)

Sector definitions:

1. Central Edinburgh
2. Edinburgh Commuter
3. North East Scotland
4. Far North
5. West Highland Lines
6. Shotts and Livingstone - Central Belt (South)
7. South West Scotland
8. North West Strathclyde
9. North East Strathclyde
10. South Strathclyde
11. South East Strathclyde
12. Central Glasgow
13. External Zones

Note — ‘New demand’ refers to the existing highway trips from sectors that will be rail served by 2010, for example, Borders, Alloa, Edinburgh & Glasgow Airport.

3.2.1 Journey Length

It is interesting to examine the distribution of rail journeys to Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glasgow. Table 3.3 illustrates that almost two-thirds of rail trips to Aberdeen are in excess of 100kms. This reflects the relative lack of commuter services serving the city, and the importance of longer distance inter-urban flows to Dundee, Edinburgh and Glasgow. It also shows the importance of trips to middle distance locations on the routes to Inverness and Dundee.

About 40% of trips to Edinburgh are 20-50km in length. This result is consistent with the distance from Edinburgh Waverley to the busiest stations leading into Edinburgh, for example, Bathgate, Linlithgow, Inverkeithing and North Berwick. A further 25% of trips are less than 100km, emphasising the importance of medium distance flows from Glasgow, Perth and Stirling.

The median journey length in Glasgow is less than 20km. This reflects the much higher concentration of stations close to Glasgow city centre on the suburban rail network compared with Edinburgh or Aberdeen. About 20% of trips are between 20-50km, with a further 20% over 100km.

Table 3.3: Distribution of Rail Journey Lengths (%)

Source: Scottish Executive, 2002/3

3.2.2 Journey Purpose

We have used two data sources to understand journey purpose. Output from the LENNON database (2003/04) has been examined to understand the proportion of season, reduced and full fare tickets. Season tickets are a reasonable proxy for commuting journeys, whilst reduced and full fare tickets are a proxy for leisure and business trips respectively. From this is can be deduced that:

• commuting accounts for about 25% of travel demand;
• business accounts for about 35% of travel demand; and
• leisure travel accounts for about 40% of travel demand.

The 2003 Scottish Household survey administered by the Scottish Executive also offers information on journey purpose. Figure 3.10 shows that after commuting the railway is used for a number of social and economic purposes including trips to education, for shopping, for business and for visiting friends and relatives.

Figure 3.10: Journey Purpose for Rail Trips (2003)

Source: Arup analysis of Scottish Household Surveys (2003)

Whilst the small and varying sample size means some caution should be attached to these results, they are not inconsistent with the LENNON output. The importance of leisure travel (including tourism), as well as business travel and commuting to work and education, should not be underestimated.

3.2.3 Mode Share for Journey to Work

We have reviewed the mode share statistics for the journey to work collected from the Scottish Household Survey. Table 3.4 illustrates the rail mode share is relatively low. The rail mode share for West Dunbartonshire, East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire is in excess of 5% illustrating the attractiveness of the Glasgow suburban rail network compared with other modes. The rail mode share for Glasgow, North Ayrshire and North Lanarkshire is 5%, but no other local authorities in Scotland have a rail mode share of 5% or more.

Table 3.4: Summary of Journey to Work by Mode (%)

Source: Scotland Household Travel Survey 2003

Bus is an important mode for journeys to work in Glasgow and Edinburgh, accounting for about a quarter of journeys to work. The relatively high proportion of journeys to work made on foot is interesting; this accounts for up to a quarter of trips in several local authorities including Dundee, the Scottish Borders, Aberdeen, Glasgow and Edinburgh.

However, the analysis shows that the majority of journeys to work are made by car, ranging from 29% in Glasgow where the alternatives from bus and rail are attractive, to 49% in Aberdeenshire.

3.2.4 Car Ownership Patterns

Figure 3.11 illustrates the proportion of households with access to at least one car.

Less than 45% of households in Glasgow have access to a car, whilst about half of the households in Dundee have access to a car. Low car ownership in Glasgow could be due to the good suburban rail network and/or the impacts of industry restructuring on income. Several of the local authorities in the Glasgow travel to work area have car ownership levels of at least 55%, including North Ayrshire, North Lanarkshire and Renfrewshire. Not surprisingly, local authorities outside the Central Belt have the highest proportion of households with at least one car, since bus and rail are generally less convenient in these areas where population density is low. Over three-quarters of households in the Orkneys, Shetland, Borders and Clackmannanshire have access to at least one car. Nowhere north of the Central Belt does car ownership fall below 65%

Figure 3.11: Car Ownership Levels per Household (access to a least 1 car)

Source: SE/Arup, 2003